The Institute of Marine Engineering, Science and Technology (IMarEST) has published an analysis for members of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to support their negotiations on developing a Net-Zero Framework for international shipping.
Publication context
IMarEST materials were prepared on the eve of the 22nd intersessional intergovernmental working group on ship greenhouse gas emissions (ISWG-GHG 22), which is scheduled for 1–4 September 2026. The institute submitted several papers for discussion and for assessing proposed measures in line with the IMO 2023 Emissions Reduction Strategy.
Essence of the analysis
- Four MARPOL amendment options currently under discussion at the IMO were included in the analysis, and their ability to influence the achievement of emissions-reduction targets was assessed.
- Trade-offs between environmental effectiveness, economic impact and revenue potential were considered.
- The report also assesses how well the proposals support a fair and balanced transition to cleaner fuels and technologies in the maritime sector.
According to IMarEST, this work is intended to provide technical support to IMO member states when developing long-term regulatory measures aligned with industry decarbonization goals.
Key conclusion
The most promising option for meeting the 2030 and 2040 milestones was identified by IMarEST as the levy-based model.
According to the model description, it includes:
- fixed financial penalties for ships that do not meet emissions requirements;
- financial support only for shipowners and operators using zero or near-zero fuels and technologies.
At the same time, the analysis notes that another option—keeping the Net-Zero Framework as currently drafted—could deliver the lowest average abatement costs among market mechanisms, provided that significant increases in biofuel prices can be avoided up to 2038.
Methodology and data source
The analysis was based on updated modelling carried out by the University College London Energy Institute Shipping and Oceans Research Group together with the Rocky Mountain Institute.
As noted by Dr Tristan Smith, professor of energy and transport (UCL Energy Institute, lead of the IMarEST delegation to IMO GHG), this is the first study to compare all four proposals side by side on one methodological basis, using the approaches and assumptions applied by the IMO in its own Comprehensive Impact Assessment of incremental measures.
Next steps
With negotiations intensifying ahead of MEPC 85 later this year, IMarEST has launched an industry consultation to gather professional views on current IMO emissions measures and possible practical consequences of net-zero policy for the maritime sector.
The organization is also inviting a broader community of experts—engineers, scientists and technologists—so that its IMO-level positions continue to be based on industry expertise.
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