A strengthening El Niño is on track to become one of the strongest events on record, raising new concerns for global shipping just days after the Panama Canal announced additional draft restrictions to conserve water ahead of the expected dry season.
In its latest ENSO diagnostic discussion published last Thursday, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) reported that the likelihood of reaching a 'very strong' event status is now 81% for the October to December period, with a 97% chance of it lasting into early spring 2027.
Oceanic and atmospheric conditions have continued to strengthen over the past month. The latest weekly Niño 3.4 index reached +1.2°C, while the eastern Pacific warmed to +2.7°C, supported by a Kelvin wave that has increased subsurface ocean heat. NOAA also reported persistent low-level westerly winds, enhanced convection over the central Pacific, and suppressed rainfall in Indonesia—all signs of a strengthening, fully coupled El Niño.
If this occurs, the event will rank among the largest El Niño episodes since records began in 1950.
The forecast coincides with the Panama Canal preparing for the possibility of another dry season impacting its watershed. Last week, the Panama Canal Authority announced it would gradually reduce the maximum allowable draft for Neopanamax vessels from 49.5 feet to 49.0 feet starting July 24, and to 48.5 feet from August 15, citing the need to manage water resources amid the expected El Niño.
The restrictions remain significantly less stringent than those imposed during the historic drought of 2023-24, when exceptionally low water levels in Gatun Lake forced sharp draft and transit restrictions that disrupted global supply chains and created long queues of vessels.
Canal officials stated that over the past year, they have implemented water-saving measures, including more active use of Neopanamax lock water-saving basins, simultaneous lockages, internal lock gates, and reduced hydropower generation to avoid a repeat of that crisis situation.
Ironically, the new climate forecast comes as the Panama Canal marks the tenth anniversary of its expansion. Since the opening of the Neopanamax locks in June 2016, more than 31,000 vessels have transited the expanded waterway, which now generates more than half of the canal's total revenue. In the first eight months of fiscal year 2026, the canal processed 8,593 transits, including 2,385 Neopanamax vessels, highlighting the expansion's central role in global trade.
The anniversary also underscored the canal's growing dependence on long-term water sustainability. Canal officials have identified the proposed Río Indio reservoir as a key project to ensure freshwater supplies for both canal operations and the population of Panama as climate fluctuations become more pronounced.
Beyond Panama, a very strong El Niño could alter weather patterns worldwide. Typically, it suppresses hurricane activity in the Atlantic while increasing tropical cyclone activity in the central and eastern Pacific, shifts precipitation across the Americas and Asia, and can cause drought in parts of Central America, Southeast Asia, and Australia—all factors with implications for agriculture, inland transport, energy production, and maritime trade.
While NOAA warns that no two El Niño events produce identical impacts, forecasters have stated that the confidence in the current event continuing to strengthen through the end of the year is unusually high, increasing the likelihood of climate patterns typical of one of the world's most powerful oceanic and atmospheric phenomena.
