Global Agricultural Trade Faces Record Shipping Times

Global agricultural trade continues to expand, but longer shipping distances, climate change, and increasing pressure on key maritime routes are beginning to alter the bulk cargo market and sustain demand for ton-miles for shipowners.

A new analysis from shipbrokers Ursa, Braemar, and Xclusiv points to a combination of record shipping times, changing grain export patterns, and looming weather risks associated with a potential El Niño event that could reduce vessel supply and elevate the freight market over the next 18 months.

According to Ursa Shipbrokers, the average duration of agricultural shipping in the first quarter of 2026 reached 33.2 days globally, the highest level recorded in available historical statistics.

This figure encompasses both the maritime transit and port stay time for bulk agricultural cargoes, including wheat, corn, soybeans, barley, and rice, transported internationally on bulk carriers.

Ursa estimates agricultural cargo loading volumes at 182.9 million tons for the quarter, up from 170.3 million tons a year earlier, while the duration of maritime shipments increased by almost 13% year-on-year to 20.3 days.

The broker noted that the increase in shipping times was primarily driven by longer sailing distances rather than port congestion or slower vessel speeds.

"Bulk carriers required more time in the first three months of 2026 to transport and unload agricultural cargoes," the Ursa report stated.

Meanwhile, global maritime trade in agricultural products continues to grow steadily. Ursa estimates April shipments at 67.7 million tons, a 14% increase compared to last year and the tenth consecutive month of annual growth. Cumulative agricultural shipments from January to April reached 250.6 million tons, the highest level for this period in at least a decade.

The structural growth story remains unchanged. Global maritime export supplies of agricultural products increased from 564.7 million tons in 2016 to a record 722.8 million tons in 2025, implying an average annual growth rate of about 3%. However, brokers argue that the next major driver for the bulk markets could be weather changes associated with a potential El Niño cycle.

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts an 82% chance of El Niño conditions developing between May and July this year, with increasing odds of a strong event developing by late 2026.

Braemar noted that the previous major El Niño cycle in 2023-24 had a mixed impact on global agricultural regions, including drought conditions in parts of Asia and Southern Africa and changing precipitation patterns across the Americas. This time, analysts believe that weather changes could significantly alter grain flows.