The Panama Canal is once again reducing the maximum allowed draft for neopanamax ships on the neopanamax locks due to falling water levels and the strengthening of El Niño. According to Splash 24/7, this decision was made based on the current state of Lake Gatun and the expected hydrological conditions.
New restrictions
From August 26, the allowed draft will be reduced to 48 feet (14.63 m), and from September 3 to 47.5 feet (14.48 m) until further notice.
These changes are the fourth and fifth reduction of the limit this year. Previously, the following limits had already been set:
- 49 feet from July 24;
- 48.5 feet from August 15.
Expected effects and measures
The Panama Canal Authority said it expects to maintain the number of transits. In its view, water-saving measures implemented in December mean it is better prepared than during the last period of severe drought.
Nevertheless, the authority continues to monitor lake levels and forecasts to respond in time to any need for further restrictions.
Why the situation is concerning
The article says the industry vividly remembers the previous drought period caused by El Niño in 2023. At that time, neopanamax draft limits were reduced from the usual 50 to 44 feet, and the number of transits dropped from around 40 to the mid-20s.
During that period:
- the queue at the canal exceeded 160 vessels;
- delays reached more than two weeks;
- one operator paid a record $4 million at an auction for a priority transit.
At the end of the crisis, which lasted into 2024, only sustained draft levels made it possible to restore the 48-foot limit and return daily throughput to a more normal level.
Climate background
According to the U.S. Climate Prediction Center, the probability of El Niño strengthening and persisting into early 2027 is estimated at 97%. For Panama, this usually means drier conditions.
Therefore, even though officials say current measures are preventive and do not reduce transit volumes, additional restrictions could force operators of neopanamax vessels and gas carriers to reduce loading or look for alternative routes.
GLOAPM.COM