DHL forecasts a 3% slowdown in container fleet growth in 2026 due to port congestion and Suez Canal diversions

DHL forecasts a 3% increase in the capacity of the global container fleet in 2026

The slowdown in growth is attributed to port congestion and ongoing diversions around the Suez Canal.

The capacity of the global container fleet is expected to increase by approximately 3% in 2026, which is nearly half the long-term average of around 6%, according to the February Ocean Freight Market Update by DHL Global Forwarding[3].

The company attributes the slowdown in growth to port congestion and ongoing Suez Canal diversions, which limit the effective supply of the fleet[3]. Meanwhile, demand for container shipping has increased by 5% from the beginning of 2025 to November, driven by strengthening secondary trade flows from Asia[3].

Tight market and route utilization

A possible resumption of traffic through the Suez Canal could support shipping on the Asia-Europe route; however, the market is expected to remain tight in 2026, according to DHL[3].

• Vessel utilization on the Far East - West route exceeds 90%[3].
• On Transpacific routes, it is around 88%[3].
• On the Asia - Latin America lines, trade is forecasted to grow by 1.8% in 2026 with utilization around 80%[3].

DHL also expects a decline in freight rates by early summer after a spike before the Chinese New Year. Futures indicators suggest a return to levels seen in the second half of 2025, with volatility expected to persist in 2026, according to the company[3].