Global Shipbuilding 2025: Order Volume at a Maximum, but Investments Under Threat Due to Global Uncertainty

By April 2025, the global shipbuilding industry approached with an unprecedented order portfolio — 5,759 ships with a total deadweight of about 372 million tons are at various stages of construction[5]. However, market dynamics are undergoing sharp changes: while in 2024 the pace of orders and investments reached a peak not seen since 2007–2008, in the first half of 2025, the number of new contracts fell almost by half — down 48% compared to the same period last year[2]. The reason is the rise in global uncertainty, logistics crises, and the escalation of tariff wars between the USA and China.

Why Shipbuilding is Losing Momentum

Experts note that the decline has affected most key segments: orders for bulk carriers decreased by 49% compared to the ten-year average, for tankers — by 30%, and for gas carriers — by 56%[2]. In the summer of 2025, global shipbuilders delivered 238 new bulk carriers (17.2 million tons deadweight) to customers, while only 28 ships were scrapped — this imbalance increases supply in the market and puts pressure on freight rates[4].

At the same time, the USA is considering the introduction of increased customs duties on ships controlled by Chinese companies, as well as possible restrictions on orders from Chinese shipyards. This forces shipowners and crewing companies to reconsider their plans and slow down investments, opting for alternative jurisdictions for building new ships[5].

Structural Changes in the Fleet and Prospects

Despite the short-term decline, the total production volume in 2025 is expected to be at 42.7 million CGT (compensated gross tonnage), which is higher than the figures for 2024 (41 million CGT)[1][3]. Meanwhile, the pace of container ship construction is decreasing, while that of gas carriers is increasing. In the future, market activity may be limited by the lack of available dry dock space, especially for large and technically complex vessels[3].

Environmental Trends and Long-Term Strategies

The "green" factor is becoming increasingly important — orders for new ships are increasingly taking into account requirements for environmental sustainability and long-term operation (20+ years)[3]. This forces shipowners and shipbuilders to adapt to new technological and regulatory challenges.

Thus, the global shipbuilding industry is entering a period of turbulence: on one hand, the industry demonstrates record volumes of construction and fleet renewal, while on the other hand, it faces unprecedented challenges from geopolitics, logistics, and regulation, forcing market participants to seek new development strategies and adapt to rapidly changing conditions[2][5].