Global economic growth will slow down in 2025 due to tariffs and instability — UNCTAD report

The pace of global economic growth in 2025 is expected to slow to around 2.3-2.4%, indicating recession risks driven by escalating trade tensions, rising tariffs, and uncertainty in international markets. This is reported by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) in its new report, as well as confirmed by data from other sources.

The slowdown in global GDP growth is projected to be around 2.3-2.4% in 2025, which is lower than in 2024, when growth was about 2.8-2.9%. This decline is linked to increased tariff barriers, disruptions in global supply chains, and the delayed effects of trade conflicts, primarily between major economies like the US and China.

Trade tensions and uncertainty have reached a "historic high," significantly impacting investment activity and exacerbating financial instability. According to UNCTAD estimates, new tariffs and retaliatory measures are worsening global trade conditions, causing companies to delay investments and slow down hiring.

Particular vulnerability of developing countries: many of them will face a so-called "perfect storm" — a combination of external debt burdens, worsening financial conditions, and weakened domestic growth, which may hinder progress in sustainable development.

Different growth estimates from international organizations

Despite some differences in forecasts, all experts agree that rising tariffs and trade disputes pose significant risks to global economic growth, limiting investment and trade activity.

The importance of overcoming trade barriers and stabilizing global politics is emphasized as a key factor for restoring economic growth, as well as maintaining the resilience of international trade and finance.