Study: By 2040, over 70% of coral reefs will stop growing and begin to deteriorate due to global warming

By 2040, over 70% of coral reefs in the Caribbean and Atlantic regions may stop growing and begin to deteriorate rapidly due to ongoing global warming, according to the results of a new large-scale study. This poses a serious threat to the ecology and coastal areas that depend on the natural protection of reefs.

An international team of scientists led by Professor Christopher Perry from the University of Exeter analyzed fossil remains of ancient and modern data from more than 400 reef zones in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea. The study found that rising temperatures and sea levels are causing reefs to fail to develop, making over 70% of reefs vulnerable to erosion and destruction by the mid-21st century.

Key findings of the study

• If global warming reaches 2°C, by 2100 nearly 99% of the region's coral reefs will be subject to destruction.
• By 2060, sea levels could rise by 0.3–0.5 meters, and by 2100 by 0.7–1.2 meters, exacerbating the flooding of reefs.
• Corals are unable to grow fast enough to compensate for rising water levels and maintain their usual ecosystem.
• The disappearance of coral reefs will weaken the natural protection of coastlines from destructive storms and waves, increasing the risk of flooding and infrastructure damage along the coasts.

Moreover, the scientists emphasize that the threat concerns not only reefs as ecosystems but also socio-economic aspects: hundreds of millions of people in coastal regions depend on coral reefs for protection, fishing, and tourism.

Context of global warming

The report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) confirms that the global temperature could rise by 1.5–2°C by 2040 compared to pre-industrial levels if significant measures to curb greenhouse gas emissions are not taken. This will lead to long-term and irreversible consequences for natural ecosystems, including Arctic ice, which, in the worst-case scenario, could completely melt around 2040 as well.

Thus, the new study on coral reefs is part of the broader picture of an accelerating climate crisis that requires urgent global action to mitigate the impacts of climate change.