Ship Recycling — 2025 and Prospects for the Next Ten Years

The global ship recycling industry is on the brink of significant growth. According to recent studies and forecasts, the process of decommissioning and recycling outdated vessels, primarily built between 2000 and 2010, will accelerate in 2025, driven by new environmental requirements and initiatives.

Expert estimates from BIMCO indicate that over the next decade, the ship recycling market could encompass around 16,000 vessels with a total deadweight of approximately 700 million tons, which is 1,000 units more than previous forecasts and nearly three times the recycling figures from 2015 to 2024 in terms of deadweight. More than 90% of this deadweight will be accounted for by bulk carriers, tankers, and container ships, with a significant share also coming from combined vessels and fishing fleet vessels.

Modern environmental standards, including the entry into force of the Hong Kong Convention, require stricter safety and environmental protection regulations at shipyards. This stimulates the modernization of the recycling process and increases costs. However, the global push for 'green' shipbuilding simultaneously creates conditions for the decommissioning of old vessels and their replacement with more environmentally friendly next-generation ships.

Analysts at BCC Research forecast that the global ship recycling market will grow from the current $9.1 billion to $13 billion by 2030, with an average annual growth rate of about 7.4%. India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan control over 90% of all ship dismantling operations, holding about 80% of the market.

Current recycling trends already reflect global demand for scrap metal, the aging of the fleet, and tightening safety regulations. According to recent reports, the period from 2025 onwards will become a 'boom' for recycling, when the volumes of decommissioning old vessels for dismantling and processing will significantly increase.

At the same time, global shipbuilding is preparing for an increase in new ship construction starting in 2025, which is linked to expectations of rising cargo transportation in the bulk carrier and tanker segments. However, the complexity of loading shipyards and the environmental focus of production compel fleet operators to focus on the efficient decommissioning of old vessels and thoughtful fleet renewal.