DHL forecasts a slowdown in global container fleet growth to 3% by 2026

Port congestion and Suez Canal diversions hinder industry development

The capacity of the global container fleet is expected to increase by approximately 3% in 2026, which is nearly half the long-term average of around 6%. This is stated in the February Ocean Freight Market Update by DHL Global Forwarding.

The slowdown in growth is attributed to two key factors: port congestion and ongoing Suez Canal diversions, which limit the effective supply of the fleet. The nominal fleet capacity is projected to grow by 4% in 2026 compared to 7% in 2025.

Demand remains resilient despite challenges

Demand for container shipping has increased by 5% from the beginning of 2025 to November, amid strengthening secondary trade flows from Asia. Vessel loading on key routes shows market tightness:

• On the Far East - West route, loading exceeds 90%
• On Transpacific routes, it is around 88%
• On Asia - Latin America routes, trade is projected to grow by 1.8% with loading around 80%

Freight rate and volatility forecasts

DHL expects freight rates to decline by the beginning of summer 2026 after a spike before the Chinese New Year. Futures indicators suggest a return to levels seen in the second half of 2025. However, volatility will remain throughout the year.

A potential resumption of traffic through the Suez Canal could support container shipping on the Asia - Europe route and improve the effective capacity of the fleet. Nevertheless, DHL experts predict that the market will remain tight in 2026.