DHL forecasts a 3% increase in global container fleet capacity by 2026 amid port congestion

DHL Global Forwarding has published a forecast stating that global container fleet capacity will increase by 3% in 2026. This figure is nearly half the long-term average of about 6%[1][2].

Reasons for the slowdown in growth

The slowdown in growth is attributed to port congestion and ongoing detours around the Suez Canal, which limit the effective supply of the fleet. The nominal fleet capacity is projected to grow by 4% in 2026 compared to 7% in 2025[1][2].

The possible resumption of traffic through the Suez Canal could support container shipping on the Asia - Europe route and improve the effective capacity of the fleet. However, DHL experts forecast that the market will remain tight in 2026[1][2].

Freight rate and loading dynamics

DHL expects freight rates to decline by the beginning of summer 2026 after a spike before the Chinese New Year. Futures indicators point to a return to levels seen in the second half of 2025, but volatility will persist throughout the year[1][2].

• Vessel loading on the Far East - West route exceeds 90%.
• On Transpacific routes, it is around 88%.
• On Asia - Latin America routes, trade is expected to grow by 1.8% with a loading of about 80%[2].

Positive trends in global trade

Demand for container shipping has increased by 5% from the beginning of 2025 to November, driven by strengthened secondary trade flows from Asia. International goods trade has risen by 10% compared to pre-pandemic levels[1][6].

Growth leaders are Southeast and South Asian countries: Vietnam, India, and the Philippines, where significant export acceleration is forecasted until 2026 due to supply chain diversification and “China+1” strategies[1][3][6].

This forecast will help shipowners and large logistics companies adapt their operational strategies to the expected challenges and opportunities in 2026[3].