China's Steel Export Cut from 2026 Will Reduce Demand for Supramax Bulk Carriers

China, the world's largest steel producer, plans to introduce an export licensing system for about 50% of steel product shipments starting January 1, 2026, which may lead to a reduction in export volumes and a decrease in demand for Supramax bulk carriers (deadweight 35–60 thousand tons).[1][4][7]

Reasons for the Restrictions

The Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China announced the addition of certain types of steel products to the list of goods subject to licensing regulation. Exporters of about 300 types of metal products will have to apply for licenses based on contracts and quality certificates. This decision is driven by a growing protectionist reaction worldwide to record volumes of Chinese exports.[4][7]

In 2025, China's steel exports reached 119 million tons, increasing its share in global flows to 42%. Steel products account for over 41% of China's maritime exports of dry bulk cargo, of which 67% is transported by Supramax vessels.[1]

Impact on Maritime Transport

According to estimates by Signal Ocean and Signal Group, the reduction in steel exports will negatively affect the demand for Supramax bulk carriers in the region. There may be an increase in the use of Handysize vessels for more flexible deliveries.[1]

• Global steel flows in 2025: 283 million tons (+5% compared to 2024).
• Chinese exports: 119 million tons (growth due to external supplies).
• Supramax's share in Chinese steel transportation: 67%.

Prospects for the Chinese Steel Market

The restrictions encourage enterprises to focus on high-tech and 'green' segments. A 15% increase in steel exports for new energy installations is expected, with a 50% reduction in carbon emissions per ton.[3]

Despite steady export growth in 2025 (+6.7% over 11 months to 107.72 million tons), analysts note that licensing lays the groundwork for stricter regulation in the future.[4]