Sea-Intelligence warns of port congestion risk with return of routes through the Suez Canal

Risk of logistical collapse due to return via Suez

The consulting company Sea-Intelligence has warned of a high risk of port congestion if shipping through the Suez Canal resumes. This could lead to significant delays and logistical problems for shipowners and cruise companies planning transit through the region.

Reasons for the risk

Due to Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, container ships are forced to bypass the Suez Canal via Africa, which has led to an increase in schedule reliability. According to Sea-Intelligence, global reliability reached 58.7% in April 2025 — the highest since November 2023. Maersk leads with a reliability rate of 73.4%, followed by Hapag-Lloyd (72.3%) and MSC (60.7%).

Forecast of consequences

The return of routes through the Suez may cause congestion in ports, similar to peak loads in previous years. Analysts note that the Gemini Cooperation alliance (Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd) shows leadership with 90.7% in arrivals. At the same time, the situation in the Red Sea remains a key risk factor: the Houthis have suspended attacks, but vessels continue to avoid the canal.

• Container traffic is expected to grow by ~4% in 2025 (Maersk forecast).
• Carrier profits may drop by more than 80% due to falling freight rates.
• MSC will increase its fleet by 1.5 times by April 2026, intensifying competition.

Experts from Sea-Intelligence recommend that carriers prepare for scenarios of transit recovery to minimize delays.