MSI forecasts peak new ship deliveries in 2027 at 100 million GT

Consulting company Maritime Strategies International (MSI) expects a peak in new ship deliveries in 2027, when the volume will reach 100 million GT. In 2026, this figure will be around 80 million GT, a result of the record order book from 2025.[1]

Record orders of 2025

By the end of 2025, global shipyards received the third largest order book in history — for vessels with a total tonnage of 90 million GT, second only to 2007 and 2008. New orders are dominated by container ships, which accounted for about half of the total tonnage.[1]

Peak of the order cycle in 2026–2027

MSI considers 2026 and 2027 to be the peak of the order cycle. In 2027, contracts for 40 million GT are expected to be signed, after which orders for tankers and bulk carriers will begin to grow more actively. The volumes of maritime transport will remain at the current level for another year, with an emphasis on smaller container ships (less than 20,000 TEU), which make up about a third of the orders.[1]

Price pressure

Prices for orders are likely to come under pressure due to the increasing number of shipyards and capacities competing for a smaller volume after the peak. Container ships will maintain their lead in orders, focusing on smaller vessels.[1]